Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Initiating Coverage on EDU – Strong Sell


EDU - Magna Cum FraudeMuddy Waters rates New Oriental Education & Technology Group (NYSE: EDU) shares a Strong Sell because it is probable that EDU will have a significant restatement and possible that its auditor will resign because:
  • EDU has reported 392% revenue growth since going public. The revenue growth has been built on store growth of 338% during this time. EDU tells investors that its entire store network is company-owned, but this is a lie. As recently as last month, EDU president and CFO Louis Hsieh adamantly denied that EDU has any franchisees. This report shows Hsieh’s statements are patently false – EDU has numerous franchisees. However, these franchisees are not a hidden bonus for investors. Rather, they are part of a substantial fraud in EDU’s accounts.
  • It is virtually certain that EDU uses the upfront franchise and other fees to inflate its cash balances in order to receive unqualified audit opinions from its auditor.
  • EDU’s Beijing operation (which is approximately 35% of EDU’s reported revenue) has prepared financial statements for 2009 – 2011 are fraudulent. EDU has submitted these financial statements to its domestic regulator, the Civil Affairs Bureau (“CAB”). It is probable that EDU used these same financials in the preparation of its U.S. filings.
  • EDU’s corporate structure is far more problematic than just a weak VIE. The schools that conduct its operations are ultimately state property. We question how EDU can consolidate them.
  • We believe that as a result of our exposure of these problems with EDU’s reporting, EDU will restate historical results – likely significantly; and, that its auditor will resign.
[1] Calculation based on RMB revenue, and excludes currency fluctuations.
[2] Store count number includes schools and learning centers; it excludes book stores.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

New Oriental Education Called Into The Principal's Office


If you're a current New Oriental Education investor, Tuesday's earnings must have you scratching your head.
New Oriental Education reported impressive beats on the top and bottom lines. Unfortunately, shares gapped lower and not higher. New Oriental Education is a Chinese company, but investors are liquidating the entire space. (See my recent article Will Bridgepoint Be Held Back a Year?)
BPI ChartBPI data by YCharts
New Oriental Education has lost about 30% of its market cap from Monday's close. New Oriental Education disclosed on its website they are the target of an active SEC investigation.
According to the website:
"On July 13, 2012, the Company was informed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") had issued a formal order of investigation captioned 'In the Matter of New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.' The Company believes that the investigation concerns whether there is a sufficient basis for the consolidation of Beijing New Oriental Education & Technology (Group) Co., Ltd., a variable interest entity of the Company, and its wholly-owned subsidiaries, into the Company's consolidated financial statements. The Company intends to fully cooperate with the SEC in its investigation."
Only two sentences in an earnings report that is otherwise glowing with positive results. No one wants to read "SEC investigation" about their stock, especially one based in China.
New Oriental Education may not know the full details of the investigation, but there is one thing we do know. The SEC is suing auditors for not providing audit documents. TheStreet's Timothy Collins recently called EDU a short candidate. If you read Collins' article you would have known about EDU before the fall. (You need a Real Money Pro account to read, but Collins' analysis makes it worthwhile.)
New Oriental Education used Shanghai Deloitte as the auditor for the 2011 annual report. Shanghai Deloitte was sued by the SEC about two months ago for failing to submit requested documents to the SEC. Deloitte argues it is caught between two separate and conflicting sets of laws. Deloitte, in its defense, has claimed it is not legally allowed to hand over certain documents because of state secrets laws in China.
The bottom line is, investing in Chinese stocks adds another layer of risk for investors. The risk is further compounded by the current inability of the SEC to impose sanctions against Chinese nationals for securities fraud. U.S.-listed and -traded Chinese stocks are a perfect storm for securities fraud. There is nearly zero risk for a potential perpetrator and a life time of riches for a successful fraud.
I have written about the risks facing investors for about a year now. With so many opportunities available in the North America and Europe, there is no reason to play Russian roulette with your portfolio. In Russian roulette, players use a six-shooter, effectively giving odds of failure at 1 in 6. Based on my experience, the odds of failure with a Chinese company listed in the U.S. the odds of failure are about 1 in 8.

Why SOHU is the best buy in the China Internet Space


 YOKU acquires TUDO:  Why isn't SOHU worth $90?


YOKU's acquisition of competitor TUDO yesterday represents a strong move to consolidate online video in China.  Considering the current market, there were just three impact players:  YOKU, TUDO and SOHU …. and now there are two.  The market reaction to the transaction, including today's substantial follow-through up-bid in both the acquirer and the acquired, means that the market is valuing video in China as "the next big thing".   If the market was saying "YOKU overpaid", YOKU would have sold off, but instead it is rallying further. 
Looking at December's figures, which are representative of trends in the second half of 2011, we see:
December 2011
Video Websites,
 Total Minutes, millions
Total Page Views, millions
YOKU TV
1,801
2,142
TUDO Sites
1,405
2,097
SOHU TV
2,445
2,155
Next 5 competitors combined
1,738
2,256
Data source JP Morgan
These numbers validate the attractiveness of SOHU's content, demonstrating stickiness by attracting viewers to view more minutes per page view than its competitors.
Yesterday's purchase of TUDO for appx $40 a share in YOKU stock sent both YOKU and TUDO soaring, validating a purchase price north of 1.5 Billion USD.  The case for SOHU Video being worth more is obvious.  
SOHU TV is not an afterthought.   It has been carefully assembled, and streams some of China's highest quality content from Sony, Disney and MGM amongst others.  As the CEO stated on their last conference call, they stream 21 of China's top 30 prime time dramas.  All this has caused their viewer metrics to have grown 250% to 300% since Q1 2011. 
SOHU is an integrated internet operator, with strong positions in games, streaming video, search, and a leading portal.  Its games business comes via its 63% ownership of publicly traded Changyou, a leading online games vendor in China.  Sogou's Pinyin search has demonstrated genuine popularity with users, and is steadily gaining market share in a sector written off to domination by "winner take all" dynamics.
We rate SOHU's business development strategies as coherent and credible.   
Taking a "sum of the parts look" at SOHU's enterprise value,  JP Morgan does a conservative and credible job of valuing search, portal and games components.  But given what we now know about the enterprise value of video, we see SOHU north of $90 a share.   

Segment
Value (mil USD)
Comment
SOGU
200
Search, gaining market share, in a sector written off as impossible
Games — CYOU
1,000
Leading player in the space, DD Tank
Portal
700
Conservative in relation to SINA and others
Video
1,200
Pegged by YOKU TUDO transaction
Cash
500
In addition to CYOU cash position
Sum of parts
3,600
Conservative Valuation estimate
Shares o/s
38.76
Million shares
Valuation p/s
$93.00


We couldn't help noticing that even iResearch, in a recent report, measures Sohu's weekly unique visitors 50% higher than Qihoo 360.  If SOHU carried the same market cap as Qihoo, its portal would be valued at $3 billion, and SOHU's per share valuation would be $145.00

Company
Category
Weekly UVs(M)
%Change
Tencent
Portal
276.43
+ 4.47%
Baidu
Search
266.81
+ 4.64%
Sina
Portal
188.46
+ 4.16%
Sohu
Portal
181.83
+ 3.84%
NetEase
Portal
129.20
+ 10.24%
Qihoo 360
Navigation
116.25
- 2.83%
Youku
Online Video
131.27
- 0.11%
Company
Category
Weekly UVs(M)
%Change
Renren
SNS
61.31
+ 9.96%
Dangdang
E-commerce
4.40
+ 6.42%
Ctrip
Travel
37.80
+ 8.40%
Classified Ads
20.98
+ 4.37%
360buy
E-commerce
16.67
+ 6.64%
Lashou
Group Buying
7.38
+ 3.43%
Vancl
E-commerce
8.15
+ 0.53%
Source: iUserTracker, professional user behavior monitor software with more than 200,000 Internet users in China
 

No, we don't think SOHU is worth 145, but it demonstrates how ludicrous Qihoo's valuation is at a $23 share price.
Cautious Investing to All.  

Monday, July 16, 2012

Game Over for China Natural Gas: SEC Charges Company with Fraud


SEC filed a complaint yesterday alleging fraud against China Natural Gas and its Chairman Qinan Ji, (formerly NASDAQ: CHNG).  This marks the 3rd complaint in the past 3 months filed by the SEC against Chinese frauds first exposed by Jon Carnes, the owner of A*L.  On February 22nd, the SEC charged Ming Zhao, Chairman of Puda Coal, with fraud (link here).  On April 23rd, the SEC charged SinoTech Energy and its Chairman with fraud (link here).  The SEC’s press release and complaint against CHNG can be found here.
Mr. Carnes was the first to publicly accuse CHNG of fraud in an anonymous report published February 12, 2010 in an online blog.  An archive of the original report is available here.  Mr. Carnes removed the reports from the blog after being threatened by an agent of CHNG Chairman Qinan Ji.
In the SEC’s press release accompanying the complaint, John M. McCoy III, Associate Director of SEC’s Los Angeles Regional Office, stated:
“Ji betrayed China Natural Gas investors by misusing company funds to benefit his family and repeatedly lying about it.  Ji’s misconduct caused China Natural Gas to file a series of false reports with the SEC and showed total disregard for his obligations as an officer and director of a company whose stock trades in the U.S.”
The SEC’s complaint focuses on two events:
1)   Qinan Ji loaned over $14 million to friends and relatives without disclosing it and later lying to cover it up.
2)   Qinan Ji acquired Lingbao Yuxi for $19.6 million without board approval or properly disclosing the transaction.
Importantly, the SEC noted that its investigation of CHNG is continuing.
A*L commends the SEC’s actions and hopes the agency will continue pursuing fraudulent Chinese companies despite the inherent difficulty the SEC (and investors) face collecting settlements from Chinese entities.

Chinese stocks quietly slip back to Feb 2009 level


Amid the usual perma-bull prognostication, nonsense, fraud and rampant willful blindness in the investment community, Chinese stocks closed today at 2147, the lowest level since Feb 2009 and now a full 35% lower than the latest “recovery” peak at 3300 in July 2009. (Hey wasn’t that 1.3 billion population the commodity bulls talk about supposed to have prevented this? Where are a billion+ consumers when you need them?)
This is the same index that was above 6,000 at the peak of the credit bubble in October 2007 before falling 72% in one year to bottom at 1671 in October 2008. Worth noting is that the Chinese economy has been leading the global economic cycle for the past several years and its stock market has led other global stock markets by several months. In the last recession, the Shanghai market bottomed October 2008 some 5 long months before North American stock markets hit bottom in March 2009. If the Shanghai were to bottom any time soon, that would still suggest a few more months of potentially nasty decline in global stocks before the present cyclical bear market has run its course.

AutoChina tycoon baffled by US probe

By ELAINE KURTENBACH

SHANGHAI (AP) - One of China's biggest commercial vehicle dealerships is among the dozens of Chinese companies with shares listed in the U.S. that have been targeted by short-sellers for alleged financial abuses or probed by regulators. Its case highlights how gray shades of business dealings in China can run afoul of American rules in black and white.
Founded by tycoon Li Yonghui, AutoChina is based in the hardscrabble northern Chinese city of Shijiazhuang and says it has 512 branches and has leased more than 33,000 trucks since it launched in 2008. In an interview with The Associated Press, Li seems genuinely puzzled by his company's predicament.
A probe of AutoChina by the Securities and Exchange Commission into allegations of market manipulation is complicated by frictions between U.S. and Chinese authorities over the sharing of financial information, a lack of transparency, and outright clashes of business cultures and practices. It was delisted from the Nasdaq last year after falling behind on its financial reporting.
In April, the SEC said it was suing 11 AutoChina investors and Hui Kai Yan, one of the company's directors, for allegedly placing fraudulent trades to create the false impression that the stock was traded more actively. The regulator said the company and the investors made hundreds of questionable trades starting in October 2010, using more than $60 million that had been deposited into U.S. brokerage accounts.
"Investors may think many Chinese companies are faking their accounts, and that may be true, I'm afraid, but I have never had any problems," Li said.
"Our company has had no problems either in terms of its operations or its finances," he said.
Like many other foreign companies with U.S. shares, AutoChina used a reverse merger to list on the Nasdaq. This backdoor procedure enables a company to become publicly traded by buying an already-listed shell company and avoiding the more rigorous process of an initial public offering.
AutoChina's onslaught of bad news started in late January 2011 when analysts using the name "The Forensic Factor" issued a report questioning its accounting practices. The SEC began a probe into AutoChina's financial disclosures in April 2011. The company's shares are now relegated to trading on the Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board, a market of corporate flotsam that requires less financial disclosure than mainboard stock exchanges.
The SEC crackdown on market abuses and shady accounting practices has coincided with a sharp rise in the number of class-action lawsuits filed against foreign issuers of securities, which more than doubled in 2011 according to a study by audit company PwC. Almost two-thirds were against mainland Chinese companies.
"I wouldn't necessarily call it a witch hunt, but there are legitimate companies that could get caught up in a sense," said Neal R. Marder, a partner in Los Angeles at law firm Winston & Strawn LLP. He has represented at least two Chinese companies that have sought to fight back.
Chinese government rules barring accounting firms with operations in China from sharing information with authorities overseas have hindered SEC efforts to investigate in such cases. "Accounting firms as well as any business in the PRC have to abide by trade secrets laws, privacy protections and blocking statutes in China," said Marder.
After two decades of doing business under China's capricious legal and political system, Li is no stranger to a fight. A foray into real estate investment in the late 1990s that involved an attempted takeover of a state-owned real estate company put him at odds with top local leaders. They detained him for several months until he gave up the takeover bid.
"In China, they catch you first and then try to prove you have violated some law," Li said. "They could find nothing that I had done wrong so they had to let me go."
Li and Diana Liu, a Taiwan-born Canadian citizen and AutoChina board member whose Spring Creek Investments was the vehicle AutoChina used to list on Nasdaq, vehemently deny they or the company played any role in the share trades questioned by the SEC.
Li and Liu are not among the investors and companies named as defendants, most of whom the SEC said are Li's relatives or AutoChina employees.
Liu contends that the investors named in the complaint were simply backing the company through an "investment club" that involved pooling their savings for occasional online trades.
"It's not like in the U.S., where when an investor wants to buy or sell he goes to the bank or does it online. In China they tell the person in charge of handling the trades who wants to sell and who wants to buy. He does the transactions for them," she said.
At the heart of AutoChina's troubles, Li said, were difficulties over getting its former auditor PriceWaterhouse Coopers to approve its 2010 financial reports. Eventually AutoChina replaced PwC with another U.S. auditor, but by the time it filed its earnings, it was due to be delisted.
"We appealed, but without any explanation at all they said they would not allow us to continue to be listed. Is that transparent? Why did my company have to delist? Up to now nobody has explained it," Li said, his frustration showing through his calm, soft-spoken demeanor.
Some of the short-sellers' accusations were false, AutoChina contends. However, the company did respond to complaints over an "earn-out" in its share listing that awarded shares to Li, thus diluting the value of holdings of existing shareholders, by cancelling that provision.
PwC did not respond to a written request for comment on the case. The SEC also has not responded to an emailed request for comment.
While waiting for the case to go to court, Li said he is busy expanding AutoChina's insurance business and other services.
"My intention is to build up a vehicle-leasing 'McDonalds,'" he said.
But the barrage of questions over Chinese company shares is discouraging mainland companies from attempting listings. Many are opting to go private, or to reconsider listing in Hong Kong or other overseas markets.
"We considered whether to list in China, in Hong Kong or in the U.S. I thought that America would be the most open, most just and most transparent environment, the most favorable for business. Now, I believe that is not the case," Li said. "If I were to have another chance, I probably would not choose this route."

The Stock That Sticks Up Gets Hammered Down: NANI, CEAI & CAST


Chinese education stock Neologic Animation (OTC: NANI) has recently been getting plenty of attention from investment newsletters thanks to paid promotions but before traders just in on this latest Chinese reverse merger, it might be a good idea if they consider what happened to two other Chinese education stocks: China Education Alliance (PINK: CEAI) andChinacast Education Corporation (PINK: CAST). Specifically, China Education Alliance (CEAI) and Chinacast Education Corporation (CAST) were highflyers until they became dogged by fraud allegations or internal strife and there is the old (apparently) Japanese saying (that sounds very Confucian) to the effect that: “The nail that sticks up gets hammered down.” So will Neologic Animation (NANI) get hammered down like China Education Alliance (CEAI) and Chinacast Education Corporation (CAST)? Here is a quick reality check by looking at all three:
Neologic Animation (OTC: NANI): A Chinese Pump and Dump?
Neologic Animation was founded by “renowned” child psychologist and author, Dr. Zhang, as an after school education Website for primary school students in China. Specifically, Neologic Animation offers interactive, web based games for difficult concepts that children must learn to succeed in school. According to various disclosures, transactions of $30k and $60k have occurred from M & B Capital Services, Ltd to recently promote Neologic Animation in various newsletters plus there have been posts on online message boards from traders who have received messages or emails pushing the stock. On Tuesday, Neologic Animation rose 12.34% to $0.163 (NANI has a 52 week trading range of $0.04 to $0.20 a share) for a market cap of $26.52 million plus the stock is up 176.7% since it started trading via a reverse merger earlier this year. I am not seeing any detailed reports about Neologic Animation alleging fraud but then again, the stock only just started recently trading on the OTC – meaning its not going to be on the trading screens of many investment houses or short sellers. Nevertheless and if Neologic Animation gets enough attention, you can count on some type of allegation to surface.
China Education Alliance (PINK: CEAI): Still Too Good to Be True?
China Education Alliance provides online education and on-site training in China plus it has a data base of more than 400,000 exams and test papers and courseware for college, secondary and elementary schools that it markets under the Famous Instructor Test Paper Store brand. On Tuesday, China Education Alliance closed at $0.60 (CEAI has a 52 week trading range of $0.42 to $3.75 a share) for a market cap of $6.35 million but I am not seeing much chart data from either Google Finance or Yahoo! Finance which is odd because CEAI is a Chinese reverse merger dating from 2004. However, its worth noting that on November 29, 2010, Kerrisdale Capital Management released areport  claiming that China Education Alliance was fabricating financial statements made to the SEC and the allegation caused the company’s stock to sink by 79% to $2.45 while its market capitalization shrank by $61 million. Specifically, Kerrisdale Capital Management flagged discrepancies between China Education Alliance’s SEC filings and those with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) that showed the company had generated less than $1 million in revenue in 2008 (rather than the $24.85 million reported to the SEC). However, Kerrisdale Capital Management was a largely unknown firm prior to the report – which generated considerable publicity for it. Otherwise and for the first quarter, China Education Alliance reported that total revenues fell by 31.3% year-over-year to $4.8 million, gross profit fell by 52.4% to $2.2 million and the company had a net loss of $0.1 million. According to China Education Alliance, first quarter results were weaker on account of seasonality and the “prolonged effects of the unsubstantiated allegations that surfaced towards the end of 2010.”
Chinacast Education Corporation (PINK: CAST): Dogged By Allegations and Internal Strife
Chinacast Education Corporation intends to be a leading private, post-secondary education company in China that provides both physical campuses and a comprehensive online learning platform to address the market for university graduates with career skills and adult continuing education. However, its worth noting that Chinacast Education Corporation is not a Chinese reverse merger as the company was originally financed by Intel (INTC) and DirecTV (DTV) and Hong Kong's second largest conglomerate, Sun Hung Kai, back in 2000 and then it had an IPO in May 2004 on the Singapore Stock Exchange. In December 2006, the company was acquired by Great Wall Acquisition Corporation, a special purpose acquisition corporation (SPAC), and then it was listed on the Nasdaq Global Market in October 2007 but the stock recently got booted off of there for failing to file Form 10-K for 2011 (it also needed to restate financial results for 2010 in order to reverse a write-off of certain prepayments). On Tuesday, Chinacast Education Corporation rose 11.32% to $0.59 (CAST has a 52 week trading range of $0.30 to $6.45 a share) for a market cap of $28.92 million but the stock had traded between the $4 and $8 level for most of 2009 through to this year according to Yahoo! Finance charts. Nevertheless, Chinacast Education Corporation was hit by fraud allegations last year – including some in a detailedreport  from Kerrisdale Capital Management. Besides the allegations, Chinacast Education Corporation has also been dogged by internal strife with the CFO stepping down earlier this year.
The Bottom Line. At the end of the trading day, it does not really matter if Chinese education stocks Neologic Animation (NANI), China Education Alliance (CEAI) and Chinacast Education Corporation (CAST) are really frauds because in the case of the last two stocks, the market has already made its decision.